Economic Crises –(as understood by Sweezy and Anwar Sheikh)
Crises are extraordinarily complicated phenomena- shaped to a greater or lesser extent by a wide variety of economic forces. As per Marx crises could be explained only by production, competition and credit. however his work on the subject remained unfinished. Therefore much time and energy has been devoted to decode the theory behind crises.
Simple commodity production and crises.
Barter system was C-C i.e commodity for commodity.(as against C-M-C circuit for a developed commodity production system) purpose of money is to split the act of exchange into 2 parts- in time and in space. By allowing such flexibility to parties- producer and buyer we can say that use of money makes productivity possible. Organization of production in this way carries the risk of a crisis. As a result of the crisis , coexistence of stocks of unsaleable commodities and unsatisfied wants emerges. Every producer has produced more than he can sell.vis a vis economic scarcity here for the first time we see a crisis of overproduction. Overproduction is a result of crisis and not the cause for the same. The idea is to explore why the produce was not bought. Possibility of external factors like wars, natural disasters etc. is ruled out since these occurrences lead to crisis of acute shortage rather than one of unsaleable surpluses.
Hoarding is a possible explanation- however this is a gradual process which can be offset by an adequate increase in the supply of money commodity otherwise can even lead the economy into a depression via effect on circulation and hence production.
We can conclude that under simple commodity production, barring external factors- wars and crop failures, crises are possible but rather unlikely. (since it is based on C-M-C i.e production is undertaken basically for consumption and because consumption is a continuous process there is little chance of the there being a crisis.)
Say’s Law which states that a sale is invariably followed by a purchase of equal amount – there can be no interruption of the circulation C-M-C , hence no crisis and no overproduction. Say’s law further establishes it into an impossibility- of crisis in a simple commodity mode of production. This law hoever barred the way to a theory of crises and led to fragmentary, unrelated contributions to the subject by economists. Marx for this reason devoted much attention to a detailed criticism of the law. He wanted to clear the way for a later analysis for the cause of crises in commodity mode of production by removing all doubts about the existence of crises and overproduction. He ridiculed Ricardo’s theory of impossibility of overproduction as “childish”.
Actually one does not have to buy just because one has sold. Sale and purchase are separated by time and space.
The circulation form C-M-C which is characteristic of simple commodity production, turns into M-C-M’ under capitalism. This is the fundamental difference between the two. For the former, the purpose is the acquisition of use value and not the enhancement of exchange value. (that is why simple commodity production is production for consumption and it explains the unlikelihood of crisis and overproduction).
Under capitalism with M-C-M’ being the dominant form of circulation we see that the capitalist is money oriented with M and M’ both representing exchange value (no use value). Purpose of the entire procedure is to have a quantitative difference between the two i.e a positive (M’-M). therefore expansion of value becomes the subjective aim. Capitalism is production for profit and that is why capitalism is peculiarly susceptible to crises and overproduction. It can be said that C-M-C does not disappear with the coming of capitalism. Indeed for laborers etc. circulation continues to take this form (since his objective is to increase use value unlike the capitalists’ desire for appropriating more and more wealth). Therefore accumulation of the workers- savings banks, insurance etc. springs from the necessity to insure a smooth flow of use values to himself. This establishes that it is a falsity that in capitalism ever one is driven on by a desire to make profits. Also it is erroneous to suppose that everyone is interested in use values.
Relation b/w M-C-M’ and the crisis problem
The attention of the capitalist is focused on maximizing (M’-M)- not it’s absolute value but the value relative to magnitude of the original capital i.e (M’-M)/M. this fraction denotes the rate of profit. Therefore we say that the capitalist wants to maximize his rate of profit.
As far as the possibility of a crisis is concerned- the condition is same as that for simple commodity mode of production. Any interruption in the circulation process, any withholding of buying power from the mkt., can initiate a contraction in the circulation process which will give rise to overproduction and will soon be reflected in a curtailment of production itself. The basic point of difference with the simple commodity mode of production is (M’-M)- which is responsible for contraction in capitalism.
Two cases for consideration-
1) (M’-M) disappears or becomes negative.- here the incentive for capitalist production is removed. Capitalists will withdraw their capital, circulation will contract and a crisis followed by overproduction will set in.
2) (M’-M) falls- i.e there is a fall in the rate of profit. once it goes below the usual range, a curtailment of operations on the part of capitalists will set in. the reasons being-
- Since capitalists are required to continually keep reinvesting, the capitalists shift their capital out of an industry performing poorly into another one. However if the general scenario for all industries is bad then investment by capitalists will be postponed which will interrupt the circulation process. Result would be crisis and overproduction. Crisis is in fact part of the mechanism by which the rate of profit is restored either completely or partially to it’s previous level.
- Capitalists when faced with abnormally low rate of profits, instead of holding on to their money capital would rather increase their personal consumption. The argument in this regard that the total dd for commodities would be unaffected and there would be no interruption of the circulation process is flawed however as pointed out by Marx. Since this reasoning does away with the most basic assumption of capitalism- capitalists’ never-ceasing urge to accumulate capital.
Crisis is an interruption of the circulation process induced by a decline in the rate of profit below its usual level. Modern Business-Cycle theory concludes that capitalist class comprises two sections-
a) Entrepreneurs- org and direct the process of production.
b) Money capitalists- ss the funds in the form of interest bearing loans, required by the former for their operations.
The entrepreneur finds it worthwhile to invest capital so long as the rate of profit which he receives is greater than the rate of interest which he is obliged to pay. As soon as the rate of profit falls below the rate of interest, the entrepreneur has no more motives to invest; circulation is interrupted, and a crisis ensues. The problem might seem to be high rates of interests but it must be acknowledged that capitalists prefer high rates (for loans to entrepreneurs) only because they have a higher preference for holding capital in money form. Moreover the capitalists are of the belief that lower rates of interest would be unlikely to last. They postpone lending activities until demand has picked up or till interest rates rise up again. If that doesn’t happen then the new lower rate of interest becomes the norm and capitalists resume their lending operations.
The refusal of money capitalists to lend to entrepreneurs at interest rates below what is regarded as normal is essentially the same as the refusal of capitalist entrepreneurs to invest when the rate of profit falls below the usual range. The capitalist class contracts its investment activities when the rate of return on capital sinks below a certain level. As per Marx this behavior springs from the most fundamental characteristics of capitalist production and not from the form in which the supply and use of capital funds is organized. i.e the modern business cycle theory suggests that even in the absence of institutional arrangements that give rise to a money mkt. and a rate of interest, capitalist production would still be subject to crises brought on by fluctuations in the rate of profit.
No amount of tampering with the monetary system can be expected to do away with capitalist crises. The main reason is the falling rates of profit and the reasons responsible for the same are-
1) Crisis associated with the falling tendency of rate of profit- process of capital accumulation.
2) Realization crises
The law of falling rate of profit expresses the results of Marx’s analysis of capitalist accumulation: periods of accelerated growth are necessarily followed by periods of decelerating growth.
Eg. The great depression of 1930s and acc to some Marxists the capitalist world once again hovers on the brink.
There is a difference b/w a generalized economic crises and shorter term cyclical fluctuations such a s business cycles or partial crises caused by crop failures, monetary disturbances etc. business cycles and partial crises are explained by more concrete factors.
The main driving force behind capitalist activity- the desire for profits, makes the individual capitalist battle on two fronts:
1) In the labor process- against labor over the production of surplus value. Here Mechanization emerges as the dominant form to increase the production of surplus value.
2) Circulation process- against other capitalists in the realization of surplus value in the form of profits. Here Reduction of unit production costs/ cost prices emerges as the principal weapon of competition. And this can be achieved by more advanced methods of production – larger, more capital intensive plants that lower unit production costs.
Now, for more advanced methods :
a) the higher capitalization (capital advanced per unit o/p) implies higher unit non labor costs- ‘c’ (unit constant capital)
b) higher productivity implies lower unit labor costs ‘v’ (unit variable capital)
on balance, the unit production cost must decline ( c+v) so that the latter effect must more than offset the former- fall in ‘v’> rise in ‘c’ . diminishing returns set in when limits of existing knowledge and technology are reached and subsequent increases in investment per unit o/p will call forth ever smaller reductions in unit production costs. This implies lower rate of profit hence a falling general rate of profit.
Various counteracting influences act to slow down and even temporarily reverse the falling rate of profit-
a) higher intensity of exploitation
b) lower wages
c) cheaper constant capital
d) growth of relatively low organic composition industries
e) import of cheap wage goods or means of production
f) Migration of capital to areas of cheap labor and natural resources.
A falling rate of profit leads to a generalized crisis through its effect on the mass of profit. In an economy with invested capital, any fall in the rate of profit reduces the mass of profit, accumulation on the other hand adds to the stock of capital so long as the new capital’s rate of profit is positive. The strength of the 2 effects determines the movement of the total mass of profit.
Necessity theories-
Marx’s theory of falling rate of profit is the principal necessity theory. He explains the occurrences of crises through internal factors based on the movement of potential rate of profit.
(it talks about the fall in rate of profit).
Capitalism comprises of two objectives-
1) Profit increasing motive- can be achieved by increasing productivity of labor with wage cuts etc.
2) Surplus value increase motive- can be achieved by reducing production cost.
The two can be achieved with fixed capital. But the use of the same lowers the rate of profit (as increased investment helps one- i.e. the large firm to reduce costs but for the system as a whole- average rate of profit falls- emerges as the dominant tendency).
Effect on investment- due to decline in rate of profit, ‘long wave’ in the mass of total potential profit- first accelerates then decelerates and stagnates. Investment fall implies productivity growth falls (real wages increase relative to productivity). Effects of crisis of profitability:- under consumption and wage squeeze.
System’s natural recovery- each general crisis precipitates wholesale destruction of weaker capitals and intensified attacks on labor (wage cuts etc.), which help restore accumulation by increasing centralization and concentration by increasing overall profitability.
But in capitalist world, problems of stagnation and worldwide unemployment worsen over time. (due to the cycle- profit followed by lower long term rate of profit and growth). These problems arise from capitalist accumulation itself (not from insufficient competition/ excessive wages) and therefore cannot be ‘managed away by state intervention’.
Politics cannot and will not command the system unless it is willing to recognize that the capitalist solution to a crisis requires an attack on the working class and that the socialist in turn requires an attack on the system itself.
Possibility theory
Can be split into:-
1) Under consumption theory
2) Wage squeeze theory
Under consumption theory: (money value of product= wages+ profit) .since wages are less then value of the product, consumption for workers is never sufficient to buy back the product-leading to a demand gap. And greater the share of profits, greater the demand gap (since lower the wages). Gap is filled somewhat by capitalists’ consumption but bulk of their income is saved not consumed- i.e. ‘leakage’. If this saved income (leakage) is not used to fill the demand gap part of the product wouldn’t be sold, such that whole system contracts till profits fall so low that capitalists are forced to consume all their income. This implies no Investment and no growth. Therefore economy is predisposed toward stagnation.
how about filling the demand gap not by consumption but by investment? Yes that could happen with demand for plant and equipment and the greater this demand greater the production level and employment.
We see two contrary forces- Savings and Investment. The former leads to stagnation and the latter leads to expansion.
Possibilities for investment depend on-
1) Foundation- for large scale commerce and trade. i.e. when hegemony of capitalist nation allows it political and economic stability.
2) Fuel for large scale Investment- i.e. when new products, new markets, new technologies- all coincide.
Both 1) and 2) determine growth.
Impact of monopoly power?
It restricts output, increases prices and redistributes income in their (monopolists’) favor at the expense of workers and small capitalists.
Therefore these large capitalists- get more and save more and restrict investment in their own industry to keep prices high. And profits imply demand gap increases (Investment opportunities fall) and stagnation is unavoidable.
Sweezy says- monopoly capitalism- post war witnessed secular boom and absence of stagnation is explained by (countervailing factores)-
a) Post war US hegemony
b) New products and technology
c) Military expenditures
To overcome stagnation-
Keynesian Economics- the State (through its own spending or through its stimulation of pvt. Spending) can achieve socially desired o/p and employment level. Therefore the state shall determine, finally, laws of motion of capitalist economy.
Under Consumptionists- agree on the view given above. But they say it isn’t currently practical since the world is characterized by Monopoly not Competition. And monopoly increases capitalism’s tendency toward stagnation and the state counters it by stimulating Aggregate Demand. (but monopolists respond by increasing prices and not by increasing o/p or employment). Result is- stagflation (of stalemate b/w state power and monopoly power) and if state retreats- it results in recession/ depression.
Therefore, Crisis is essentially a political event, due to unwillingness of the state to tackle monopolies.
Keynesian theory claims that the state has the economic capability to manage the capitalist sytem and both- crisis and the recovery from it. These are political questions towards which this capability is applied.
Therefore monopolies can be controlled via-
1) Price controls
2) Regulation
3) Forceful economic planning
These will break the back of inflation. Along with these measures- increased social welfare expenditure and increased wages. These benefit the working class and the capitalist system as a whole.
Wage Squeeze Theory
Link general crisis to a sustained fall in the rate of profit- i.e. when wages increase, working hours fall – there is a decline in the rate of surplus value. Marx says that this leads to decline in rate of profit. Technological change increases rate of profit (in absence of changes in real wages). Increase in rate of profit leads to Investment boom. Profit to wage ratio increases and monopoly power increase exacerbate the demand gap. This displays tendency of stagnation. He state can offset this.
Wage squeeze theory looks for increasing real wages more than increasing the productivity as evidence that it is labor- behind crisis. Proponents of this theory are- Roemer, Bowles, Armstrong and Glyn.
Kalecki gives the argument – state intervention turns an under consumption theory into a wage squeeze.
The state can engineer a recovery from (workers’ excessive wage increase induced crisis) if both workers and capitalists make sufficient concessions and display moderation. Here also the State is endowed with the power (which is characteristic of possibility theory).
The bottom line of the two theories is that- Politics can command capitalism.